"I've picked several ETFs from the market, and I'm worried whether I can buy them tomorrow," said Ah Yun (a pseudonym), a new stock market investor from Guangdong, who missed the big rise before the holiday and thus plans to bet on the market opening after the festival.

For her, the seven days of National Day were particularly fulfilling and exciting. Not only did she need to urgently study the "homework" of the stock market, but she also had to reorganize her financial planning, redeeming hundreds of thousands of yuan from the fast redemption quota of financial management to prepare "ammunition."

Around her, the craze of rushing into the stock market is continuously heating up. Some colleagues made hundreds of thousands of yuan before the National Day and went out to celebrate with a trip, some friends' stocks that had been deeply trapped for months were finally released, and even the large-amount deposit purchase information group she originally joined were sharing stock market experiences.

In fact, under the recent multiple favorable policies, the continuous rise of the A-share market has stimulated the enthusiasm of investors. Deposits and financial funds are transferring to the stock market. On the last day of the holiday, many investors redeemed financial products and transferred large-amount deposits, running into the market to "brave the stock market."

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Industry analysts interviewed believe that optimistic sentiment has dominated the portfolio adjustment behavior and also supported the foundation for strengthening returns after the festival. However, the stock market has risks, and investors are advised to reasonably allocate assets and not blindly chase rises and kills.

A surge in large-amount deposit transfers during the holiday

On the last day of the National Day holiday, the trend of deposits and financial management moving to the stock market gradually became apparent.

"I hesitated for a long time whether to enter the stock market or hold large-amount deposits, and finally decided to take a gamble," Li Ming (a pseudonym), a depositor from Shenzhen, told reporters that he hung a large-amount deposit with an annual interest rate of 3.05% this morning, with more than 500 days to maturity.

For Li Ming, this means giving up the originally locked high interest rate for the next two years. Currently, the annual interest rate of the normal two-year large-amount deposit in this bank is only 1.95%.

There are not a few investors with similar ideas to Li Ming. On October 7, the reporter inquired about the large-amount deposit transfer areas of several mainstream banks and found that the number of high-interest rate large-amount deposit transfers has increased significantly. The previously "hard-to-get" 3% annual interest rate large-amount deposits are no longer out of stock.For instance, when reporters inquired, Bank of Communications had multiple large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) with an interest rate of 3.13% that were being transferred at a discount in search of "buyers," and there were over 30 large-denomination CDs with transfer interest rates above 2.4%. In the transfer area of China Merchants Bank, depositors listed multiple discounted large-denomination CDs, with annualized interest rates generally above 2.3%, and occasionally, one could find transferred CDs with interest rates above 3%. WeBank had dozens of large-denomination CDs being transferred, with interest rates generally reaching above 2.6%. According to feedback from depositors, previously there were about ten such CDs per day, but the number has increased rapidly in recent days.

"Recently, I've come across many 'good deals' (referring to large-denomination CDs with high interest rates). Especially at noon and late at night, there's a high probability of finding transfer interest rates of over 3% in the transfer area," an investor shared their experience with reporters.

In addition to transferring large-denomination CDs, some users also choose to withdraw their fixed deposits early. A customer manager at a Guangdong-based joint-stock bank told First Financial Daily that many customers who had recently deposited money chose to "break the fixed term" and exit, mostly for the purpose of engaging in risky investments. In his view, these customers often have not saved for long, and the loss of fixed interest is not high, so they choose to quickly change direction and venture into the stock market with their funds.

In fact, signs of a cooling down in deposits have already emerged. According to data from Choice, in the first half of this year, the total deposits of 42 A-share listed banks increased by 6.73 trillion yuan, which is 9.67 trillion yuan less than the same period last year.

The seesaw effect between stocks and bonds reappears.

As deposits reach an ice point, financial products that were originally strong also show signs of cooling down.

Since September 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index took less than a week to rise from 2700 points to 3000 points. At the same time, the bond market is experiencing a "sharp decline."

On September 30th, the active 10-year government bond "24 interest-bearing government bond 11" rose to a maximum of 2.27%, and the adjustment range for this round has exceeded 25 basis points (BP), calculated from the lowest point of 2.00% on September 24th; the 30-year government bond also rose from the lowest point of 2.10% on September 24th to 2.45% on September 30th, with an adjustment range exceeding 30 BP.

Under the sharp decline in the bond market, the pressure of redemption of financial products is gradually increasing. According to the latest data provided by Puyi Standard, as of September 29th, the total number of bank financial products in existence is 40,650, a decrease of 0.84% from the end of the previous month; the total scale in existence is 29.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.30% from the end of the previous month.

Yang Yewei's team at Guosheng Fixed Income analyzed in a research report that due to the very rapid market adjustment this time, and considering that there is a certain amount of coupon income during the long holiday period, there was no obvious redemption pressure before the holiday, but it needs to be observed continuously after the holiday.Funds flowing out from bank deposits and financial management products are beginning to move towards the stock market.

According to data disclosed by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the net value of investor fund transfers between banks and securities companies on September 30 (hereinafter referred to as "ICBC Securities Transfer Net Value Index") surged to 16.71 after soaring to 7.04 on September 27. In the four trading days before September 27, the ICBC Securities Transfer Net Value Index was 0.66, 2.15, 1.4, and 4.4, respectively, with a weekly average of 3.13.

With a large influx of funds, stock market turnover has surged. As of the close on September 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.06%, standing above 3300 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 10.67%. Nearly 40 industry ETFs hit their upper limit, and more than 3000 stocks increased by more than 9%. A-shares traded over 2.6 trillion yuan throughout the day, setting a historical record.

The holiday securities account opening boom is brewing, and more funds may still be rushing into the market. A staff member at a securities branch in Dongguan, Guangdong, told reporters that many investors applied for securities accounts through online channels during the holiday, and the average daily account opening quantity of the branch increased by more than three times compared to before. Similarly, a staff member at a securities branch in Shenzhen also told reporters that their branch basically did not take a holiday during the holiday, in order to work overtime to handle account opening matters. The average daily account opening quantity in October is more than four times that of September.

What is the impact on the market?

Faced with the market's fund allocation, most industry experts suggest that caution is needed. Shen Meng, a director of Chanson Capital, told reporters from First Financial Daily that the policies introduced by relevant departments before the holiday created huge profit expectations for investors, which are more attractive than fixed-income products such as financial management and certificates of deposit. Therefore, optimistic sentiment dominated the allocation behavior and also supported the basis for profit enhancement after the holiday. However, the stock market has risks, and the foundation of the stock market is still the real economy. Overly optimistic sentiment may cause potential huge risks.

Dong Ximiao, the chief researcher of China United, said that a series of policy measures have been introduced recently, which will consolidate the foundation for the sustained and stable development of the capital market and provide sufficient momentum for the market's healthy and upward development. For investors, they should reasonably allocate assets based on their own investment experience, investment ability, and risk preference, and should not blindly chase rises and cuts.

It is worth noting that with the continuous influx of funds into the stock market, the industry's attention and discussion on the "negative feedback" of financial management have emerged again.

From the market environment, there may still be fluctuations in the bond market in the future. Sun Binbin, the chief of fixed income at Tianfeng Securities, and his team believe in their research report that the market generally believes that the subsequent incremental fiscal stimulus will have at least 200 billion. More importantly, the policy may indeed be turning to demand-side stimulus, with the government leveraging to promote residents' income increase and support consumption. The market's pricing in the direction of stocks and bonds, on the one hand, combines the odds, and on the other hand, considers that subsequent policy stimulus may improve the odds of risk assets, and the bond market may thus accelerate adjustments.

However, there is a divergence of views in the industry on whether there is a risk of "negative feedback" in financial management in the future.The Liu Yu team at Huax Western Securities analyzed that during the two rounds of bond market adjustments in August this year, the fluctuation control of wealth management was relatively good, which may also reflect that wealth management used a lot of historical accumulated floating profits during August. Subsequently, as the floating profit balance was basically exhausted, the net value fluctuation of wealth management products converged towards the market, and "negative feedback" may be more easily triggered. At present, there may still be some cushions that can withstand a longer period.

Zhang Jiqiang, the head of the research institute and the chief of fixed income at Huatai Securities, believes that when the turning points of the fundamentals, policy, market resilience, and net value decline all occur at the same time, there will often be a large-scale redemption feedback. At present, these conditions are already at a critical state.

However, Zhang Jiqiang believes that there are also some positive signals at present. First, the coupon income during the holiday period can compensate for a certain net value loss. If the stock market rebounds and enters a consolidation period after the holiday, the intensity of the redemption feedback will be limited. Second, the speed of market switching has accelerated, reducing the intensity of feedback, and the market also has a learning effect. In addition, regulatory authorities are also closely monitoring market fluctuations.