Weighing Powell's speech, US stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 index hitting a new high;
US stocks closed higher across the board in September and the third quarter;
Powell hints at no aggressive rate cuts in the future;
Tesla rose nearly 30% in the third quarter;
Gold prices posted the best quarterly performance since early 2020.
As the market weighed Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, US stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 index hitting a new high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 17.15 points, or 0.04%, to close at 42,330.15; the Nasdaq Composite rose 69.58 points, or 0.38%, to close at 18,189.17; the S&P 500 index rose 24.31 points, or 0.42%, to close at 5,762.48.
US stocks closed higher across the board in September, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.9% for the month, the Nasdaq Composite rising 2.7%, and the S&P 500 index rising 2%, marking the first time since 2019 that the index has closed higher in September. At the same time, the broader market also closed higher in the third quarter, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 8%, and the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite rising 5.5% and 2.6%, respectively. Among them, 3M and IBM led the Dow Jones Industrial Average, rising more than 33% and 27% in the third quarter, respectively. In addition, the small-cap Russell 2000 index performed strongly, rising nearly 9% in the third quarter.
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In terms of Chinese concept stocks, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.45%. New Oriental rose 2.37%, NIO rose 2.45%, Bilibili rose 2.01%, Sohu rose 1.29%, iQIYI rose 1.06%, JD.com rose 0.25%, XPeng Motors fell 4.25%, Zhihu fell 1.28%, Alibaba fell 1.13%, Li Auto fell 0.50%, Pinduoduo fell 0.42%, and Ctrip fell 3.08%.
In the bond market, the yields on 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds all fell for the fifth consecutive month.
Powell hints at no aggressive rate cuts in the future.Powell stated at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in the United States that the recent action of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points should not be understood as being equally aggressive in the future, implying that future adjustments will be smaller. The Federal Reserve is seeking a balance between reducing inflation and supporting the labor market, while relying on data to guide future actions.
Powell indicated that if the economy develops as expected, the policy will gradually move towards a more neutral stance, but the Federal Reserve has not predetermined a route. "The risks are two-way, and we will make decisions at each meeting," he said. Powell also hinted that if economic data remains consistent, there may be two more interest rate cuts this year, but the cuts will be smaller, with each cut being 25 basis points.
Atlanta Fed's Bostic hinted on Monday that if the labor market shows unexpected weakness, he would consider cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points. Previously, Bostic expected the terminal interest rate of the Federal Reserve by the end of the year to be between 3% and 3.25%, which is roughly in line with market expectations.
Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee expressed concern about the long-term strike at ports that may start on Tuesday, which could affect the supply chain in the form of inflation. In addition, he did not disclose the extent of the interest rate cut supported at the November meeting, emphasizing the need to consider the process of reducing interest rates to a "normal" level from a holistic perspective, which may take a year or more.
Tesla's stock price rose nearly 30% in the third quarter.
On the company front, due to profit warnings, the stock price of Jeep's parent company, Stellantis, fell by 12.52%, closing at $14.05 per share. The company warned that sales in the second half of the year will be lower than expected in "most regions." The stock prices of General Motors and Ford Motor also fell by 3.53% and 2.04%, respectively.
Despite Tesla's stock price rising only about 5% so far this year, it has accumulated a nearly 30% increase in the third quarter. Tesla will announce its third-quarter delivery volume this week, with market expectations that Tesla's delivery volume may be 462,000 units. In addition, Tesla will hold a Robotaxi launch event on October 10th, where it will release autonomous taxis.
Gold prices achieved the best quarterly performance since the beginning of 2020.
In the commodity market, the November delivery of WTI futures at the New York Mercantile Exchange fell slightly by 0.01%, closing at $68.17 per barrel. So far this year, WTI crude oil has fallen about 5%. The November delivery of Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.29%, closing at $71.77 per barrel, and so far this year, Brent oil has fallen about 7%.
In the third quarter, gold prices accumulated a rise of about 13%, the best performance since the beginning of 2020. Driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, gold prices reached a new high of $2,685.42 per ounce on September 26th. In addition, investors' concerns about the escalation of tensions in the Middle East also drove up gold prices. Investment bank Goldman Sachs reiterated its recommendation to go long on gold, raising its gold price forecast for early 2025 from $2,700 per ounce to $2,900 per ounce.
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