Sep Jobs Surge: Fed to Slow Rate Cuts?

Powell "preserves" his reputation, as traders now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by less than 100 basis points over the next four meetings.

The U.S. labor market added far more jobs than expected in September, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, reflecting a much stronger job market outlook than Wall Street anticipated.

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the job market added 254,000 jobs in September, higher than the 140,000 expected by economists and the revised 159,000 from August. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in August to 4.1%.

As an important indicator of inflationary pressure, the year-on-year wage growth rate rose from 3.9% in August to 4%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, consistent with the data from August; the labor force participation rate remained unchanged from the previous month at 62.7%.

After the data was released, spot gold plummeted $20 in a short period, and the U.S. dollar index surged, breaking above the 102 mark.

It is worth noting that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the number of non-farm jobs added in July from 89,000 to 144,000; the number of non-farm jobs added in August was revised from 142,000 to 159,000. After the revision, the total number of jobs added in July and August was 72,000 higher than before the revision.

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Following the release of strong employment data, traders further bet that the Federal Reserve will adhere to a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December, and have lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by less than 100 basis points over the next four meetings.

Data released earlier this week showed that job demand remains healthy, and layoffs are still at a low level, so the employment report may alleviate concerns about the job market cooling too quickly. Employment data may increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve policymakers cutting rates by 25 basis points next month, following a significant 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently refuted investors' expectations of another 50 basis point rate cut in November, stating that "the committee does not feel in a hurry to cut rates rapidly."

Last month's job growth was mainly driven by the leisure and hospitality industry, as well as the healthcare and government sectors.Analyst Audrey pointed out that today's employment data once again serves as a reminder that the market often underestimates the U.S. economy. This is a compelling strong report that can temporarily set aside recent discussions about recession, which will enhance the positive sentiment towards the U.S. dollar in the past few trading sessions. Amidst the lackluster performance of the euro data, the U.S. data has recently surprised with an upward trend, which is consistent with the recent downward trend of the euro/dollar.

However, what the market and economists may be focusing on more is the October Non-Farm Employment Report, which will include the impact of the strike by approximately 33,000 Boeing factory workers last month. Another large-scale strike initiated by U.S. dockworkers ended three days ago and may not have a direct impact on this data.

Nevertheless, another issue is the hurricane, which has caused widespread destruction in a large area of the southeastern United States. Some areas are working hard to reopen roads and restore power, indicating that it will take time for businesses to recover.

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