Last Friday, following the release of the robust non-farm payroll data in the United States, Federal Reserve officials made speeches one after another. However, overall, they maintained a cautious attitude towards the labor market and were more optimistic about the cooling of inflation.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report showing that the U.S. employment growth in September was 254,000 people, far exceeding expectations and setting the largest increase since March this year. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, and both the year-on-year and month-on-month wage increases were higher than expected, alleviating concerns about the deterioration of the U.S. labor market.

Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkari said on Monday that the overall risk balance is slightly tilted towards the labor market facing headwinds, that is, the unemployment rate may rise, while progress continues to be made in fighting inflation.

Kashkari believes that the U.S. labor market is still strong, and the Federal Reserve hopes to maintain this state, with rate cuts aimed at maintaining the momentum of the labor market.

Kashkari also said that he has not seen signs of inflation reigniting. The decline in new rent inflation has given him confidence that housing inflation will decrease in the next 12-24 months. The Federal Reserve is highly confident that inflation will return to the target of 2%.

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In general, Kashkari pointed out that the U.S. economy is resilient.

Kashkari revealed that in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released in September, he expected the neutral interest rate to be around 3%. However, he admitted that there is great uncertainty about the level of the neutral interest rate.

Kashkari's cautious attitude towards the U.S. labor market is similar to that of Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee, who previously said that the September non-farm payroll data was very good, but warned against over-reliance on single-month data, and also said that this will not change the trend of interest rate cuts in the next 12 to 18 months. Goolsbee also added that there is a risk that inflation may be below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

There is a certain deviation between the statements of Federal Reserve officials and the market. After the release of the non-farm payroll data that far exceeded expectations, "no more rate cuts this year" has entered the discussion on Wall Street, and some industry insiders have pointed out that U.S. inflation has been ignored, and inflation is not dead yet.